By Vladimir Smerkis.
Since the beginning of August a very powerful uptrend has formed in the BTC/USD pair. Positive news has attracted lots of new money to the market. The popularity dynamics of Bitcoin search inquiries is beating all records. All of this has impacted the exchange rate in a very positive way.
If we turn to tech analysis, here is what’s going on:
- Volatility rise.
- $3900 support zone; the price has quickly bounced off this level several times.
- $4400 resistance zone; it does not look very strong, since there’s been no clear retest.
- The uptrend continues, there’s been no signals for reversal.
There are no signals for selling, and most likely the rally will continue. However, in the current situation one should be very cautious, especially if you are a short-term trader. The $4400 resistance zone is an important point. If $4400 turns out to be a strong level, then a $3900 correction is possible. $3900 is a good level for buys.
If the price goes above $4400 without resistance, it will mean that the resistance zone was not very strong. Here, it’s important to watch the volumes and order books on major exchanges. It is highly probable that a strong resistance level will occur just above $4400, and a reversal will take place from there. So the $4400 level break buys might not be a good idea, since this level has not shown much strength. Vice versa, if $4400 turns out to be a strong level, then level-break buys are good to go.
For short term speculators the best recommendation for now is out of the market.
The best strategy for the coming week is correction buys from strong support levels.
After a strong correction in July, right now we are witnessing a new uptrend development, that can turn out to be stronger than the last one. Autumn may bring us positive news about a new version of ETH.
Technically, we see:
- No vivid support zone. The last $235 zone has been left far behind.
- $325 resistance zone doesn’t look strong for now.
- Points for entry can be found after slight correction. If you see price downfall, and shortly afterwards an increase in volumes and buyers, it’s a favorable pattern for entrance.
- News background is neutral. Recently, Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum co-founder, has published a paper on smart contracts, proposing a new framework.
There are no vivid reasons to sell Ethereum currently. It is very likely that ETH will be above the market in the next several days.
If the price follows a negative scenario, one should watch the trend line and volumes around potential entry points. The trend line breakdown is unlikely, thus buys along the line with good stop is the best strategy in case of a negative outcome.
LTC is very stable, and that’s why it is still considered to be great hedge asset.
In contrast to previous weeks, this one has seen both support and resistance levels change.
- Volatility is not high in comparison to other assets.
- Buys in LTC are connected to BTC price hike. People are reinvesting in a more profitable asset.
- Resistance zone around $48 – $49.
- Support zone is in the $38 area.
Despite the stable uptrend, a $38 – $49 range has remained for several weeks now. No essential news, and the strong BTC price rise may influence LTC in the coming weeks. Currently, trading in the range is the best strategy.